Peter Roebuck

Although the early rounds were fun thanks to the crowds, cheap tickets, music, organisation and England’s thoughtful custom of turning every match into a nail-biter, it is time to get to the crux of the matter.

Amongst those still standing, England, India, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Australia catch the eye. Not to say that it is ever wise to forget about Pakistan and New Zealand but it’s hard to see them winning three consecutive matches under intense pressure and against strong opponents – and that is the challenge presented by this tournament. They don’t give World Cups away.

England’s best chance lies in following in the footsteps of Pakistan, which came within 30 minutes of early elimination in 1992 only to scrape through, whereupon it proved unstoppable. Any team saved by rain in Adelaide knows luck is smiling.

Courting calamity Andrew Strauss’s side has been toying with calamity since its arrival and has survived by the skin of its teeth. Assuming England reaches the quarterfinals, and nothing is settled on that account, it can start all over again. That is the beauty of knockout tournaments.

Every round is a beginning. But Pakistan had one clear advantage over England – an array of brilliant players capable of turning a match and team around. England relies on grit and team work and eventually that may not be enough.

India has been improving. Admittedly that flies in the face of the ridiculous collapse against South Africa and ignores lacklustre bowling and lamentable fielding. Despite the madness, though, India almost beat South Africa.

Everyone says that Sachin Tendulkar was let down by his comrades but he started the rot with a wild shot. Perhaps he was peeved that the Power Play was taken because it was an insult of sorts. Worse, it was a miscalculation.

A lakh to a crore says the mistake will not be repeated. Moreover opponents fear India’s batting – it’s the only part of any team that is constantly mentioned. The change in Yuvraj is another important factor. Over the last few seasons he has seemed lazy and over-rated. He was living on his reputation. Now he looks sharp and hungry. Whatever his dad said to him worked.

South Africa’s blip against England was far from disastrous. Maybe it needed to get the bad day out of the system. A side needs to confront its fears. Two things hold it back. Graeme Smith’s form remains poor and at present he cannot carve the new ball around – a tactic used effectively by rivals. It might affect his captaincy as well, making him more cautious, and that way lies ruination.

Tahir’s injury is also a blow because he adds the sense of the unknown missing from previous South African outfits. Presumably A.B. de Villiers will be able to play his part. Alongside Dale Steyn and Hashim Amla, he is a critical player.

Incidentally the Kiwis desperately need to get their captain back in action. Injuries are playing a big part in this campaign.

Sri Lanka has not quite found its feet yet and might find it easier away from home. Only a fool will discount an intelligently led side containing two major batsmen and two dangerous bowlers. Fluency has been missing from their work but it’s not too late to change that.

The Australians do not look like champions but keep winning. Mike Hussey’s return has improved their chances considerably, but the pace bowling remains inconsistent and the spinners don’t look like taking wickets. Also the captain has been scratching around. The emperor is not exactly naked. Nor, though, is he dressed in all his finery.

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This article was written for The Hindu. March 20, 2011